Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play+0.047
- 39.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.123EPA / rush+0.019
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.23Points / drive1.99
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/24 | 93 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Erik Bickerstaff | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/35 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 13 | 115 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.90