Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.032
- 38.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- 30.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.15Points / drive1.46
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Ragone | 11/23 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Ragone | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 18 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 163 | 6.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 1 |
| David Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23