Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.032
- 38.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- 30.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.15Points / drive1.46
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:34 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 8:27 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 4:14 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 2:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 2:09 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 14:43 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:58 | 10 | 36 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 3:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 1:49 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q3 9:48 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q3 7:59 | 3 | -8 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q3 6:18 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q3 2:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q3 0:55 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q4 13:04 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| HOU | Q4 10:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–24 |
| JAX | Q4 9:05 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 0–27 |
| HOU | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| JAX | Q4 0:31 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 0–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Ragone | 11/23 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Ragone | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 18 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 163 | 6.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 1 |
| David Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23