Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.040
- 46.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.34Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/34 | 228 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 95 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/38 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.56