Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.045
- 47.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.163EPA / dropback+0.043
- +0.069EPA / rush+0.047
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.4%Third-down rate39.9%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.96
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.073
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 34/47 | 397 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/29 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 22 | 218 | 9.9 | 5 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.49