Closing spread
NE -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.043
- 39.3%Success rate40.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.42
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:08 | 12 | 31 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:37 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 11:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 9:12 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 4:09 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 3:43 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 2:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 11 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q3 12:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q3 10:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q3 8:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q3 7:07 | 11 | 41 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NE | Q3 1:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q3 0:13 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q4 13:58 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q4 13:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q4 12:22 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–9 |
| MIA | Q4 8:59 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q4 8:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q4 6:53 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q4 5:10 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| NE | Q4 4:53 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q4 1:51 | 4 | -1 | Safety | 0–12 |
| NE | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/31 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 25 | 68 | 2.7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/31 | 163 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 27 | 60 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.34