Closing spread
NE -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.043
- 39.3%Success rate40.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.42
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/31 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 25 | 68 | 2.7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/31 | 163 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 27 | 60 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.34