2003 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.009
- 41.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.7%Third-down rate46.4%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.38Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/34 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/30 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60