Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
38
Model margin
-0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 14:07 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 14:05 | 11 | 61 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:52 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q1 6:53 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q1 3:56 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q1 0:32 | 6 | 70 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 12:38 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 6–10 |
| BAL | Q2 9:34 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:47 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:30 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| BAL | Q2 1:20 | 4 | 41 | Missed field goal | 6–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 12:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–17 |
| BAL | Q3 11:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 9:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–17 |
| BAL | Q3 7:42 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 6:16 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 6–17 |
| BAL | Q3 3:57 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 12–17 |
| LV | Q3 2:10 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 12–17 |
| BAL | Q4 14:53 | 6 | 51 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| LV | Q4 10:54 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| BAL | Q4 5:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 12–20 |
| LV | Q4 5:02 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 12–20 |
| BAL | Q4 1:40 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 12–20 |
| LV | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 12/27 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.