Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
38
Model margin
-0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 12/27 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.