Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play+0.040
- 39.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.140EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.172
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- 31.3%Third-down rate41.2%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.93
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/30 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 26/41 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52