Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play+0.040
- 39.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.140EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.172
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- 31.3%Third-down rate41.2%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.93
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:08 | 13 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 4:40 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 3:30 | 11 | 35 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 13:51 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q2 10:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BUF | Q2 7:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q2 6:53 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BUF | Q2 3:07 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q2 1:52 | 8 | 60 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 17–6 |
| TEN | Q3 13:19 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 17–6 |
| BUF | Q3 9:12 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| TEN | Q3 6:16 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 5:35 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q3 3:40 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q4 14:31 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 17–21 |
| TEN | Q4 12:21 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q4 10:26 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| TEN | Q4 7:09 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| BUF | Q4 4:23 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 20–28 |
| TEN | Q4 3:16 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 20–28 |
| BUF | Q4 2:24 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 26–28 |
| TEN | Q4 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/30 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 26/41 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52