Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.154
- 39.3%Success rate39.4%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.236
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.35Points / drive0.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 14/25 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00