Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.154
- 39.3%Success rate39.4%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.236
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.35Points / drive0.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:15 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:24 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:09 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 0:36 | 8 | 19 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 13:06 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 6:04 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q3 12:17 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q3 8:32 | 5 | 52 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 6:01 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q3 1:28 | 9 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q4 11:29 | 8 | 28 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| CAR | Q4 8:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q4 6:54 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| CAR | Q4 1:09 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| ARI | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 14/25 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00