Closing spread
NE -6
Total
33
Model margin
+5.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.043
- 41.2%Success rate40.7%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.46Points / drive1.42
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–3 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:02 | 4 | 76 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 7:19 | 14 | 59 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 14:13 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NE | Q2 7:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–10 |
| JAX | Q2 6:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NE | Q2 4:42 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q2 2:30 | 5 | 48 | Missed field goal | 6–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:22 | 2 | -6 | End of half | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NE | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q3 11:32 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NE | Q3 9:23 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q3 5:37 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NE | Q3 3:38 | 4 | 53 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q3 1:49 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| NE | Q4 14:49 | 8 | 35 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| JAX | Q4 10:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–20 |
| NE | Q4 9:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–20 |
| JAX | Q4 8:11 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| NE | Q4 5:45 | 3 | 3 | Touchdown | 6–27 |
| JAX | Q4 4:18 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| NE | Q4 3:22 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 13–27 |
| JAX | Q4 0:51 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 21/40 | 288 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Allen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/34 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96