Closing spread
NE -14.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.089
- 41.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.08CPOE-0.32
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.59Points / drive2.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 17/33 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/42 | 358 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Dion Lewis | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26