2015 · Week 3

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

17·51

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -14.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.089
  • 41.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.075
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.08CPOE-0.32
  • 33.9%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NE @ JAX6–35JAX
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NE
JAXQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:51564Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:55938Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:191072Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 2:561850Field goal3–10
NEQ2 9:321378Field goal3–13
JAXQ2 3:42433Turnover3–13
NEQ2 1:47854Touchdown3–20
JAXQ2 0:181-3End of half3–20
NEQ3 15:00952Field goal3–23
JAXQ3 10:5033Punt3–23
NEQ3 9:5141Touchdown3–30
JAXQ3 9:04680Touchdown10–30
NEQ3 6:15765Touchdown10–37
JAXQ3 3:1844Turnover on downs10–37
NEQ3 1:56524Touchdown10–44
JAXQ4 14:5737Punt10–44
NEQ4 13:181763Touchdown10–51
JAXQ4 3:31780Touchdown17–51
NEQ4 1:2200End of half17–51

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles17/3324221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon11333.00
Toby Gerhart3103.30
Blake Bortles372.30
Corey Grant263.00
Bernard Pierce111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns24701
Allen Robinson49680
Clay Harbor35431
Bryan Walters23280
Marqise Lee12130
T.J. Yeldon2390
Corey Grant1280
Bernard Pierce2330
Marcedes Lewis0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady33/4235820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18784.33
Dion Lewis8374.61
James White284.00
Tom Brady242.00
Jimmy Garoppolo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski471010
Julian Edelman811850
Danny Amendola55391
Keshawn Martin33331
Dion Lewis55300
James White44260
Scott Chandler22250
LeGarrette Blount11140
Aaron Dobson1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26