Closing spread
NE -14
Total
51.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.115
- 50.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.282EPA / dropback-0.106
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.48CPOE-5.09
- 48.4%Third-down rate28.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 2.71Points / drive0.96
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. JAX are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/41 | 267 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/51 | 348 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montell Owens | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 7 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Montell Owens | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Toney Clemons | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stanback | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.61