Closing spread
NE -14
Total
51.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- QuestionableAaron HernandezTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableAlfonzo DennardCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableAqib TalibCBHip· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon LloydWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon SpikesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChandler JonesDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDan ConnollyGBack· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJerod MayoLBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableKyle LoveDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLogan MankinsGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMike RiveraLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNate SolderTAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableNick McDonaldCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRob GronkowskiTEForearm· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableTracy WhiteLBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Limited
- DNPTom BradyQBright Shoulder
Jaguars
- OutMaurice Jones-DrewRBFoot· DNP
- OutRashad JenningsRBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAaron RossCBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableDwight LoweryCBFoot· DNP
- ProbableBrad MeesterCFoot· Full
- ProbableDerek CoxCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableGeorge SelvieDEConcussion· Full
- ProbableGreg JonesRBThigh· Full
- ProbablePaul PoslusznyLBGroin· Full
- ProbableRashean MathisCBGroin· Full
- ProbableTyson AlualuDTCalf· Full
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.115
- 50.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.282EPA / dropback-0.106
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.48CPOE-5.09
- 48.4%Third-down rate28.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 2.71Points / drive0.96
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–3 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. JAX are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 9:34 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 8:49 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 5:43 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q1 3:15 | 5 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q1 1:15 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q1 0:16 | 5 | 67 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NE | Q2 13:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q2 12:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q2 10:38 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q2 5:25 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NE | Q2 3:49 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| JAX | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 28 | End of half | 13–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| JAX | Q3 11:44 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 16–13 |
| NE | Q3 9:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–13 |
| JAX | Q3 8:40 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| NE | Q3 6:39 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 16–13 |
| JAX | Q3 4:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–13 |
| NE | Q3 3:32 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| JAX | Q4 14:15 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| NE | Q4 8:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 23–16 |
| JAX | Q4 7:37 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 23–16 |
| NE | Q4 3:14 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 23–16 |
| JAX | Q4 0:54 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/41 | 267 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/51 | 348 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montell Owens | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 7 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Montell Owens | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Toney Clemons | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stanback | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.61