2009 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

7·35

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.118
  • 43.2%Success rate49.1%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.223
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.59CPOE+3.43
  • 46.1%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NE @ JAX6–35JAX
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NE
NEQ1 15:001082Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 9:36834Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 4:47435Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 2:48632Turnover0–7
NEQ1 0:06227Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 14:54736Punt0–14
NEQ2 11:0635Punt0–14
JAXQ2 10:0934Punt0–14
NEQ2 8:07675Touchdown0–21
JAXQ2 5:0439Punt0–21
NEQ2 2:51767Touchdown0–28
JAXQ2 0:45418Punt0–28
JAXQ3 15:001669Turnover0–28
NEQ3 6:2610100Touchdown0–35
JAXQ4 14:54570Touchdown7–35
NEQ4 12:412073Turnover on downs7–35
JAXQ4 0:2913End of half7–35

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard19/2518502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew18633.50
Rashad Jennings22512.50
David Garrard4102.51
Mike Thomas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas66570
Maurice Jones-Drew33350
Torry Holt24230
Nate Hughes11200
Mike Sims-Walker23190
Rashad Jennings34190
Zach Miller23120
Marcedes Lewis0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/2626740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris12957.91
Kevin Faulk6416.80
Fred Taylor11353.20
Laurence Maroney5224.40
Tom Brady242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker13131380
Randy Moss45453
Chris Baker22321
Julian Edelman12280
Benjamin Watson11140
Sam Aiken1170
Sammy Morris1130
Fred Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.25