Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.118
- 43.2%Success rate49.1%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.223
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.59CPOE+3.43
- 46.1%Third-down rate44.2%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.59Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 19/25 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 6 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Hughes | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/26 | 267 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 95 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 13 | 13 | 138 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 5 | 45 | 3 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.25