Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.023
- 42.5%Success rate41.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.54CPOE-0.88
- 35.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.51Points / drive1.74
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. JAX are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 26/37 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 15/20 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 26 | 118 | 4.5 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32