2024 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

16·32

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.5%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.54CPOE-0.88
  • 35.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.74
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. JAX are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NE @ JAX6–35JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–JAX
NEQ1 15:001273Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 8:32525Punt7–0
NEQ1 5:021348Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 13:31868Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 9:2143Punt10–7
JAXQ2 7:09682Touchdown10–14
NEQ2 3:3235Opp touchdown10–22
NEQ2 1:3437Punt10–22
JAXQ2 0:3916End of half10–22
JAXQ3 15:001263Field goal10–25
NEQ3 9:42514Punt10–25
JAXQ3 7:341784Turnover on downs10–25
NEQ4 11:10999Touchdown16–25
JAXQ4 8:22826Punt16–25
NEQ4 3:5868Turnover on downs16–25
JAXQ4 1:54310Touchdown16–32
NEQ4 1:41438End of half16–32

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye26/3727620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson7182.60
Drake Maye3186.00
Antonio Gibson341.30
JaMycal Hasty2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry89920
JaMycal Hasty55491
Kayshon Boutte12330
Austin Hooper45320
K.J. Osborn23261
Kendrick Bourne12140
DeMario Douglas23140
Antonio Gibson1190
Rhamondre Stevenson2370
Ja'Lynn Polk0300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence15/2019310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby261184.52
D'Ernest Johnson9384.20
Trevor Lawrence2136.50
Brian Thomas Jr.221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.55891
Evan Engram55350
D'Ernest Johnson34320
Christian Kirk13240
Gabe Davis12130
Tank Bigsby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.32