Closing spread
NE -17.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.070
- 44.0%Success rate48.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -4.53CPOE+2.93
- 35.6%Third-down rate45.5%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.33Points / drive2.41
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/27 | 193 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/30 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/4 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Damien Harris | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Kristian Wilkerson | 4 | 8 | 42 | 2 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.29