2021 · Week 17

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

10·50

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -17.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.070
  • 44.0%Success rate48.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.012
  • 7.1%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -4.53CPOE+2.93
  • 35.6%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.41
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NE @ JAX6–35JAX
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NE
JAXQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:521280Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 5:49766Field goal3–7
NEQ1 2:18966Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 12:02640Turnover3–14
NEQ2 8:17733Touchdown3–21
JAXQ2 4:40521Turnover3–21
NEQ2 1:59728Touchdown3–28
JAXQ2 0:48316End of half3–28
NEQ3 15:00677Touchdown3–34
JAXQ3 11:1456Punt3–34
NEQ3 8:42736Punt3–34
JAXQ3 4:5446Turnover3–40
NEQ3 2:4511Touchdown3–41
JAXQ3 2:4237Punt3–41
NEQ3 1:141053Field goal3–44
JAXQ4 11:4639Punt3–44
NEQ4 10:53774Touchdown3–50
JAXQ4 7:07875Touchdown10–50
NEQ4 3:48524End of half10–50

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2719313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale9364.00
Ryquell Armstead6284.70
Trevor Lawrence2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell66870
Marvin Jones26460
Dare Ogunbowale22321
Laviska Shenault Jr.23130
Luke Farrell1270
Ryquell Armstead1260
Tavon Austin3420
Chris Manhertz0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones22/3022730
Brian Hoyer3/46300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson191075.62
Damien Harris9353.92
Kendrick Bourne2178.50
Mac Jones2126.00
Jonnu Smith155.00
Brandon Bolden144.00
Brian Hoyer210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne56760
Jakobi Meyers88731
Kristian Wilkerson48422
Hunter Henry35370
Brandon Bolden23210
Jonnu Smith11200
Damien Harris11120
Gunner Olszewski1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +17.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.29