Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.137
- 41.7%Success rate49.2%
- +0.095EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.042
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.97CPOE+3.49
- 36.9%Third-down rate40.8%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.81Points / drive2.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/36 | 293 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 76 | 3.2 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/38 | 290 | 2 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1/1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 9 | 84 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.03