2017 · CON

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

20·24

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.137
  • 41.7%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.042
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.97CPOE+3.49
  • 36.9%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.52
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3NE @ JAX6–35JAX
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NE
NEQ1 15:00962Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 9:21823Punt0–3
NEQ1 5:01420Punt0–3
JAXQ1 2:51776Touchdown7–3
NEQ2 14:153-1Punt7–3
JAXQ2 13:131082Touchdown14–3
NEQ2 7:06518Punt14–3
JAXQ2 5:26830Punt14–3
NEQ2 2:02838Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 0:5500End of half14–10
JAXQ3 15:00839Field goal17–10
NEQ3 10:23628Punt17–10
JAXQ3 7:313-2Punt17–10
NEQ3 6:0438Punt17–10
JAXQ3 4:411066Field goal20–10
NEQ4 14:52340Turnover20–10
JAXQ4 13:3739Punt20–10
NEQ4 12:03885Touchdown20–17
JAXQ4 8:44522Punt20–17
NEQ4 6:2140Punt20–17
JAXQ4 5:533-1Punt20–17
NEQ4 4:58530Touchdown20–24
JAXQ4 2:48632Turnover on downs20–24
NEQ4 1:47319End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles23/3629310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette24763.21
T.J. Yeldon5255.00
Corey Grant122.00
Blake Bortles2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns67800
Corey Grant33590
Marqise Lee48410
Keelan Cole23370
Dede Westbrook13290
Leonard Fournette23130
T.J. Yeldon2360
Marcedes Lewis1341
James O'Shaughnessy1140
Ben Koyack0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3829020
Danny Amendola1/12000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis9343.80
Rex Burkhead155.00
James White341.31
Danny Amendola133.00
Tom Brady500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks681000
Danny Amendola79842
Dion Lewis78320
Phillip Dorsett11310
James White35220
Rob Gronkowski13210
Chris Hogan24200
Rex Burkhead0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.03