Closing spread
NE -2
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.130
- 47.3%Success rate40.4%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.184
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.03CPOE-4.63
- 41.8%Third-down rate40.5%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 2.32Points / drive1.26
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. JAX are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/35 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 29/45 | 376 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 7 | 8 | 116 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.19