2026 · Week 3

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

6·35

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.124
  • 45.5%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.214EPA / dropback+0.228
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.005
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +7.72CPOE+3.75
  • 41.4%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.66
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–3 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. JAX are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:06627Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:10420Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:40833Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 3:521062Touchdown0–7
NEQ2 13:2537Punt0–7
JAXQ2 11:1310Turnover0–7
NEQ2 11:04524Field goal3–7
JAXQ2 9:09965Touchdown3–14
NEQ2 4:231160Turnover3–14
JAXQ2 0:56518Missed field goal3–14
NEQ3 15:00932Missed field goal3–14
JAXQ3 9:501679Touchdown3–21
NEQ3 1:0810Turnover3–27
JAXQ3 0:5415Touchdown3–28
NEQ3 0:50884Field goal6–28
JAXQ4 13:17849Touchdown6–35
NEQ4 8:021148Turnover on downs6–35
JAXQ4 2:3332Punt6–35
NEQ4 0:2312End of half6–35

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye14/2519902
Tommy DeVito3/53000
Efton Chism III1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson8232.90
Rhamondre Stevenson7223.10
Drake Maye4184.50
Corey Kiner6183.00
Tommy DeVito122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins69870
Romeo Doubs34490
DeMario Douglas15380
Kyle Williams13340
Rhamondre Stevenson33160
Corey Kiner1190
TreVeyon Henderson1160
Hunter Henry1250
Efton Chism III1210

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence19/2918231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten15734.91
Chris Rodriguez Jr.8374.61
Trevor Lawrence4256.30
Ameer Abdullah320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers78641
Parker Washington35401
Brenton Strange35320
Bhayshul Tuten22170
Josh Cameron12121
LeQuint Allen Jr.2290
Brian Thomas Jr.1180
Ameer Abdullah0100
Nate Boerkircher0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.56