Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+16.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.310
- 40.8%Success rate59.3%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.053
- 1.4%Explosive rate16.7%
- +5.97CPOE+22.32
- 31.3%Third-down rate55.6%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.11Points / drive3.76
- 4.2%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. JAX are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
86.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+14.28
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+16.50