Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
33
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.117
- 39.3%Success rate39.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 33.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.19
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:32 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:14 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:56 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:53 | 7 | 15 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:53 | 8 | 13 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:11 | 7 | 21 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q2 7:07 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 2:06 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q2 1:14 | 5 | -4 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q3 14:07 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIA | Q3 12:02 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BUF | Q3 9:13 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 20–3 |
| BUF | Q3 7:45 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 20–3 |
| MIA | Q3 4:35 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 20–3 |
| BUF | Q3 1:52 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 20–3 |
| MIA | Q4 13:37 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 20–3 |
| BUF | Q4 9:55 | 16 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 20–3 |
| MIA | Q4 4:24 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 20–3 |
| BUF | Q4 1:01 | 5 | 46 | End of half | 20–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 8/17 | 46 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 111 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 12/24 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Brown | 3/4 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 24 | 67 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Travis Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.77