Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
33
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.117
- 39.3%Success rate39.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 33.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.19
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 8/17 | 46 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 111 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 12/24 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Brown | 3/4 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 24 | 67 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Travis Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.77