Closing spread
NE -3
Total
35
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.013
- 40.7%Success rate41.4%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.42Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| NE | Q1 14:20 | 1 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 14:12 | 17 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 4:52 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:53 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 3:57 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:55 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:53 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:35 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:39 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| NE | Q4 12:11 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 21–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:32 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 21–16 |
| NE | Q4 8:09 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 21–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:04 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–16 |
| NE | Q4 5:57 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 21–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:12 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 21–16 |
| NE | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/25 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| David Givens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 18 | 121 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/43 | 229 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24