Closing spread
NE -3
Total
35
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.013
- 40.7%Success rate41.4%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.42Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/25 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| David Givens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 18 | 121 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/43 | 229 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24