Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.099
- 42.3%Success rate38.7%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 41.2%Third-down rate30.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.15
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/36 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/34 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59