Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.099
- 42.3%Success rate38.7%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 41.2%Third-down rate30.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.15
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 11:39 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:52 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 4:50 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 1:11 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q2 13:18 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:40 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q2 7:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 6:40 | 6 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q2 3:16 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:59 | 5 | 44 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q3 14:11 | 9 | 45 | Opp touchdown | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q3 8:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q3 7:38 | 6 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 17–10 |
| HOU | Q3 5:18 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q3 2:55 | 9 | 79 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 11:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–17 |
| TEN | Q4 10:18 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 7:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–17 |
| TEN | Q4 6:34 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 2:50 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| TEN | Q4 1:48 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| HOU | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–24 |
| TEN | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/36 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/34 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59