Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.123
- 39.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.8%Third-down rate32.9%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.35Points / drive0.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/30 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Palmer | 18/43 | 110 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.51