Closing spread
CIN -8.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.049
- 43.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.053
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.1%Third-down rate44.6%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 9/18 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 26 | 186 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Jamel White | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/35 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Corey Dillon | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32