2003 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
42
Model margin
-1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.061
- 43.4%Success rate40.4%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.070
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.45
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–22 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:09 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:01 | 16 | 99 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:21 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:01 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| WAS | Q2 9:29 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q2 2:53 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 21–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| WAS | Q3 8:16 | 9 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 28–7 |
| PHI | Q3 3:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 28–7 |
| WAS | Q3 2:03 | 13 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 28–7 |
| PHI | Q4 11:58 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 28–7 |
| WAS | Q4 9:18 | 8 | 22 | Turnover | 28–7 |
| PHI | Q4 5:52 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 31–7 |
| WAS | Q4 2:00 | 5 | 9 | End of half | 31–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/32 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 21/32 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
| Gibran Hamdan | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88