2003 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
42
Model margin
-1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.061
- 43.4%Success rate40.4%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.070
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.45
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/32 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 21/32 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
| Gibran Hamdan | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88