2003 · Week 17 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

10·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

37.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.093
  • 41.6%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.112
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.074
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate31.7%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.53
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:28953Turnover0–0
PITQ1 8:0123Turnover0–0
BALQ1 7:15234Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 6:40731Punt0–7
BALQ1 1:5439Punt0–7
PITQ2 14:49618Punt0–7
BALQ2 11:5334Punt0–7
PITQ2 10:16618Punt0–7
BALQ2 6:3734Punt0–7
PITQ2 5:003-11Punt0–7
BALQ2 3:22424Punt0–7
PITQ2 1:29412Punt0–7
BALQ2 0:5000End of half0–7
BALQ3 15:00830Punt0–7
PITQ3 9:4510Turnover0–7
BALQ3 9:3213Turnover0–7
PITQ3 9:21490Touchdown7–7
BALQ3 7:45413Punt7–7
PITQ3 5:49614Field goal10–7
BALQ3 2:30637Field goal10–10
PITQ4 13:353-3Punt10–10
BALQ4 11:3530Punt10–10
PITQ4 11:074-2Turnover10–10
BALQ4 9:3366Punt10–10
PITQ4 6:12926Turnover on downs10–10
BALQ4 2:0037Missed field goal10–10
PITQ4 0:4123Turnover10–10
BALQ4 0:17232Missed field goal10–10
PITOT37Punt10–10
BALOT425Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox14/2710803
Antwaan Randle El0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis23542.30
Amos Zereoue310.30
Antwaan Randle El111.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright16/2716301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis271144.21
Chester Taylor294.50
Alan Ricard263.00
Anthony Wright4-6-1.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.41
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.59