Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.093
- 41.6%Success rate38.5%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.074
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- 36.1%Third-down rate31.7%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.53
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 14/27 | 108 | 0 | 3 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 54 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 16/27 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 27 | 114 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59