Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.026
- 46.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.148EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.099
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 46.8%Third-down rate41.6%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.98Points / drive1.83
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:50 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:52 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:45 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:15 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:47 | 5 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:06 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 10:59 | 2 | -10 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:07 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 8:47 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 5:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 4:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 3:55 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:54 | 6 | 60 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| SEA | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SF | Q3 7:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SEA | Q3 5:57 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| SF | Q3 3:28 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 21–17 |
| SEA | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–17 |
| SF | Q4 13:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–17 |
| SEA | Q4 11:53 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| SF | Q4 9:50 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 21–17 |
| SEA | Q4 7:48 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| SF | Q4 1:56 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| SEA | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/37 | 315 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/38 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jamal Robertson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67