Closing spread
STL -12
Total
45
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/36 | 238 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.