Closing spread
STL -12
Total
45
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:43 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:05 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:59 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 11:50 | 11 | 39 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| DET | Q2 6:06 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:22 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DET | Q2 3:37 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:51 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:23 | 4 | 26 | End of half | 20–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| DET | Q3 13:33 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LA | Q3 11:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–17 |
| DET | Q3 9:23 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LA | Q3 5:30 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| DET | Q3 4:21 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 20–27 |
| LA | Q3 2:56 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 20–27 |
| DET | Q3 1:41 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 20–30 |
| LA | Q4 14:29 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 20–30 |
| DET | Q4 12:40 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 20–30 |
| LA | Q4 9:35 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 20–30 |
| DET | Q4 6:56 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–30 |
| LA | Q4 4:40 | 8 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 20–30 |
| DET | Q4 2:29 | 4 | 12 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/36 | 238 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.