Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
34
Model margin
+3.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.070
- 39.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.132
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.8%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.23Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:27 | 6 | 77 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 7:42 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:14 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 2:59 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DAL | Q1 1:02 | 5 | 52 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 14:04 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DAL | Q2 12:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 9:59 | 9 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| DAL | Q2 6:10 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CAR | Q2 1:12 | 6 | 70 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| DAL | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–16 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–16 |
| DAL | Q3 12:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–16 |
| CAR | Q3 11:12 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–23 |
| DAL | Q3 9:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–23 |
| CAR | Q3 8:38 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DAL | Q3 4:35 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 3–23 |
| CAR | Q3 3:28 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 3–26 |
| DAL | Q4 12:45 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–26 |
| CAR | Q4 7:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–26 |
| DAL | Q4 5:43 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 10–26 |
| CAR | Q4 4:59 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 10–29 |
| DAL | Q4 3:12 | 8 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 10–29 |
| CAR | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 21/36 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26