Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
34
Model margin
+3.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.070
- 39.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.132
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.8%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.23Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 21/36 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26