Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.093
- 42.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.074
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.2%Third-down rate31.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.93Points / drive1.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–9 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:57 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 8:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:10 | 2 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q1 6:12 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q1 1:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 14:50 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 11:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 9:09 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 6:18 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 1:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q3 13:50 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 11:15 | 6 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q3 7:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q3 6:49 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q3 2:24 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q3 1:19 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–10 |
| BAL | Q4 13:31 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q4 11:33 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| BAL | Q4 9:13 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q4 4:30 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| BAL | Q4 3:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q4 2:44 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| BAL | Q4 0:29 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/23 | 159 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 20/37 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95