Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.093
- 42.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.074
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.2%Third-down rate31.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.93Points / drive1.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/23 | 159 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 20/37 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95