Closing spread
STL -7
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/26 | 290 | 1 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 21 | 95 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 6 | 86 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.