2003 · DIV

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

29·23

Rams

St. Louis

QB Marc Bulger

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

STL -7

Total

46

Model margin

+2.0est.

STL perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CAR34–31RAMS
2025 · W13LA @ CAR28–31CAR
2022 · W6CAR @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W1LA @ CAR30–27RAMS
2016 · W9CAR @ LA13–10CAR
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–STL
CARQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:111076Field goal0–3
CARQ1 5:34834Turnover0–3
LAQ1 0:41517Field goal0–6
CARQ2 13:26472Touchdown7–6
LAQ2 11:22753Field goal7–9
CARQ2 6:581162Field goal10–9
LAQ2 1:0730End of half10–9
LAQ3 15:00742Field goal10–12
CARQ3 11:25649Field goal13–12
LAQ3 7:4530Punt13–12
CARQ3 7:121269Field goal16–12
LAQ3 0:43715Turnover16–12
CARQ4 13:08865Touchdown23–12
LAQ4 8:5010Turnover23–12
CARQ4 8:403-7Missed field goal23–12
LAQ4 6:291655Touchdown23–20
CARQ4 2:3900Field goal23–20
LAQ4 2:38443Field goal23–23
CAROT1046Missed field goal23–23
LAOT530Missed field goal23–23
CAROT49Punt23–23
LAOT649Turnover23–23
CAROT365Touchdown29–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme16/2629011
Steve Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster21954.50
Stephen Davis68614.30
Nick Goings6223.70
Steve Smith177.00
Muhsin Muhammad133.00
Jake Delhomme4-6-1.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+1.96

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.