Closing spread
KC -3
Total
53
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.124
- 46.3%Success rate47.9%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.163
- -0.060EPA / rush+0.069
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate42.4%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 2.34Points / drive2.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–6 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:20 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 3:38 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:37 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| IND | Q2 8:35 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| KC | Q2 4:29 | 11 | 66 | Missed field goal | 21–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:05 | 2 | -13 | End of half | 21–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 48 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| IND | Q3 14:32 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| KC | Q3 9:24 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| IND | Q3 5:26 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 31–23 |
| KC | Q3 1:48 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| IND | Q3 1:35 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| KC | Q4 11:14 | 17 | 76 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| IND | Q4 4:22 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 38–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:08 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 38–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/30 | 304 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 125 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/30 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 24 | 176 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.91