Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:58 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:50 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:58 | 6 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:42 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:35 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q2 9:40 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:49 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 2:17 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:36 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:16 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:55 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:31 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:52 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 27–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:11 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 9:59 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:38 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 34–21 |
| LAC | Q4 3:56 | 17 | 91 | Touchdown | 34–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:30 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 34–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 32 | 119 | 3.7 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.