Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 60 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:24 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:13 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:51 | 14 | 103 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:26 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:36 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:13 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 2:54 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 10:29 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:54 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 1:23 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:43 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 4:46 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NYJ | OT | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 13 | 48 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| NYJ | OT | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 23/33 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.