Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.082
- 40.0%Success rate39.5%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.141
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 34.0%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.30Points / drive1.44
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q1 9:24 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:28 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| HOU | Q1 1:43 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q1 0:06 | 4 | 4 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| HOU | Q2 13:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 13:41 | 3 | 11 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| HOU | Q2 11:07 | 13 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q2 6:37 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q3 11:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q3 9:47 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q3 6:47 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q3 4:22 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q3 2:42 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q3 0:43 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q4 14:03 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 7–19 |
| HOU | Q4 10:41 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q4 9:32 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 7–22 |
| HOU | Q4 7:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–22 |
| BUF | Q4 5:47 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 7–22 |
| HOU | Q4 1:53 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 7–22 |
| BUF | Q4 1:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 9/21 | 70 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Carr | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 17/28 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62