2015 · Week 13

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

21·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 47°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

42

Model margin

0.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBills
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.025
  • 40.4%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.17CPOE+2.97
  • 39.6%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.83
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BUF
HOUQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:13753Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:371175Touchdown6–7
BUFQ1 3:58971Touchdown6–14
HOUQ2 14:53837Punt6–14
BUFQ2 10:5449Punt6–14
HOUQ2 9:051070Touchdown13–14
BUFQ2 3:57771Touchdown13–21
HOUQ2 0:3000End of half13–21
BUFQ3 15:0038Punt13–21
HOUQ3 13:20519Punt13–21
BUFQ3 10:56716Punt13–21
HOUQ3 7:46727Punt13–21
BUFQ3 4:03659Missed field goal13–21
HOUQ3 0:31615Punt13–21
BUFQ4 13:2030Punt13–21
HOUQ4 11:58683Touchdown21–21
BUFQ4 9:12522Punt21–21
HOUQ4 6:4349Punt21–21
BUFQ4 4:5534Punt21–21
HOUQ4 3:3834Punt21–21
BUFQ4 2:33575Touchdown21–27
HOUQ4 1:5340Turnover on downs21–27
BUFQ4 1:3332Field goal21–30
HOUQ4 0:33652Turnover21–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer26/4329331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Polk12615.10
Jonathan Grimes5285.60
Brian Hoyer3155.00
Alfred Blue4143.50
Akeem Hunt177.00
Cecil Shorts111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts610910
DeAndre Hopkins59881
Nate Washington611440
Ryan Griffin35291
Jonathan Grimes22150
Chris Polk11111
C.J. Fiedorowicz1180
Jaelen Strong0200
Akeem Hunt1100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor11/2121130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy211125.30
Mike Gillislee7415.90
Tyrod Taylor7284.01
Anthony Dixon166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins341091
Charles Clay47661
Robert Woods25191
Chris Hogan13120
Mike Gillislee1150
LeSean McCoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin0.00