Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
42
Model margin
0.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.025
- 40.4%Success rate40.7%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.17CPOE+2.97
- 39.6%Third-down rate38.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 1.50Points / drive1.83
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 26/43 | 293 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Polk | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 6 | 11 | 44 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 11/21 | 211 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 112 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 109 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin0.00