Closing spread
BUF -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-10.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.300EPA / play+0.071
- 41.8%Success rate48.1%
- +0.597EPA / dropback+0.098
- -0.263EPA / rush+0.030
- 14.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +8.14CPOE+3.16
- 33.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.07Points / drive2.80
- 0.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/29 | 334 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Frank Gore Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 130 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 26/38 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Woody Marks | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Marlin Klein | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jared Wayne | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
24.1%
Expected total
53.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.24
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-10.02