2026 · Week 1

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

36·31

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

Reliant Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

BUF -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • +0.210EPA / play+0.031
  • 49.2%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.338EPA / dropback+0.138
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.167
  • 13.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +4.89CPOE+2.27
  • 48.3%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 70.0%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
  • 3.19Points / drive2.19
  • 2.4%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
BUFQ1 15:00730Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 11:1531Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 9:3239Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 7:281276Touchdown3–7
BUFQ1 0:32767Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 12:461565Touchdown10–14
BUFQ2 4:48419Touchdown17–14
HOUQ2 3:5948Punt17–14
BUFQ2 2:10396Touchdown24–14
HOUQ2 1:29565Touchdown24–21
BUFQ2 0:2623End of half24–21
HOUQ3 15:0045Punt24–21
BUFQ3 13:10729Punt24–21
HOUQ3 9:2635Punt24–21
BUFQ3 7:58612Field goal27–21
HOUQ3 4:241372Touchdown27–28
BUFQ4 13:34652Field goal30–28
HOUQ4 10:31736Field goal30–31
BUFQ4 6:4430Punt30–31
HOUQ4 5:3931Punt30–31
BUFQ4 3:13793Touchdown36–31
HOUQ4 1:361047Turnover36–31
BUFQ4 0:0900End of half36–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/2933420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook13574.40
Josh Allen6233.82
Frank Gore Jr.133.00
Ray Davis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid561300
DJ Moore581001
Khalil Shakir46500
Josh Palmer12341
James Cook34120
Dawson Knox1170
Keon Coleman1110

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud26/3827420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery20603.02
Woody Marks9424.70
C.J. Stroud2157.50
Nico Collins177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins710751
Jaylin Noel22530
Dalton Schultz48350
Xavier Hutchinson36320
Kayshon Boutte12210
David Montgomery33191
Marlin Klein11160
Foster Moreau22150
Jared Wayne11120
Cade Stover11-20
Woody Marks11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.08