Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.057
- 41.8%Success rate45.6%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.62CPOE+1.12
- 35.9%Third-down rate43.7%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.56Points / drive2.18
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/46 | 264 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1/1 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Duke Williams | 4 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/25 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.02