2019 · WC

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

19·22

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.057
  • 41.8%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.62CPOE+1.12
  • 35.9%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.18
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
BUFQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 11:41838Punt7–0
BUFQ1 7:02719Punt7–0
HOUQ1 3:58618Punt7–0
BUFQ1 0:321074Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 10:47625Punt10–0
BUFQ2 5:451379Field goal13–0
HOUQ2 0:0400End of half13–0
HOUQ3 15:003-6Punt13–0
BUFQ3 13:24424Punt13–0
HOUQ3 11:20417Turnover13–0
BUFQ3 9:59718Field goal16–0
HOUQ3 6:02975Touchdown16–8
BUFQ3 1:33532Turnover16–8
HOUQ4 14:11527Field goal16–11
BUFQ4 10:5536Punt16–11
HOUQ4 9:29873Touchdown16–19
BUFQ4 4:37828Turnover on downs16–19
HOUQ4 1:3549Turnover on downs16–19
BUFQ4 1:16942Field goal19–19
HOUQ4 0:0500End of half19–19
HOUOT312Punt19–19
BUFOT1028Punt19–19
HOUOT873Field goal19–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/4626400
John Brown1/11610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen99210.20
Devin Singletary13584.50
Frank Gore8222.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Singletary67760
John Brown48500
Duke Williams410490
Cole Beasley45440
Isaiah McKenzie45230
Josh Allen11161
Dawson Knox12140
Lee Smith1180
Frank Gore0100
Patrick DiMarco0100
Tyler Kroft0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/2524710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson14553.91
Carlos Hyde16483.00
Duke Johnson33812.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins68900
Kenny Stills45460
Darren Fells45370
Taiwan Jones11340
Duke Johnson33300
Carlos Hyde1151
DeAndre Carter1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.02