2025 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

19·23

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.008
  • 48.8%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.149
  • 11.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.77CPOE-1.68
  • 46.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.05
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:551081Touchdown6–0
HOUQ1 9:11954Field goal6–3
BUFQ1 4:3236Punt6–3
HOUQ1 2:4034Punt6–3
BUFQ1 1:381269Field goal9–3
HOUQ2 9:351357Touchdown9–10
BUFQ2 3:4710Turnover9–10
HOUQ2 3:2635Field goal15–13
BUFQ2 1:5600Touchdown16–13
HOUQ2 1:43675Touchdown16–20
BUFQ2 0:0500End of half16–20
BUFQ3 15:0055Punt16–20
HOUQ3 11:1159Punt16–20
BUFQ3 9:033-1Punt16–20
HOUQ3 7:2938Punt16–20
BUFQ3 5:47320Turnover16–20
HOUQ3 4:09619Field goal16–23
BUFQ3 0:17940Turnover on downs16–23
HOUQ4 10:0931Punt16–23
BUFQ4 9:09642Field goal19–23
HOUQ4 5:44424Punt19–23
BUFQ4 2:481365Turnover19–23
HOUQ4 0:1800End of half19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/3425302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook171166.81
Josh Allen5204.00
Ty Johnson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir8101100
Ty Johnson33450
Jackson Hawes22260
Gabe Davis12220
Josh Palmer24210
Dawson Knox34170
James Cook33130
Reggie Gilliam1120
Elijah Moore13-30

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills16/3015320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks16744.60
Nick Chubb6162.70
Xavier Hutchinson199.00
Jaylin Noel155.00
Davis Mills242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins33550
Christian Kirk56541
Jayden Higgins49381
Dalton Schultz1480
Jaylin Noel1240
Cade Stover0200
Nick Chubb11-10
Woody Marks11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.32