Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.008
- 48.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.149
- 11.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.77CPOE-1.68
- 46.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 2.73Points / drive2.05
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/34 | 253 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 116 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 8 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/30 | 153 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.32