Closing spread
BUF -19
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.091
- 37.6%Success rate47.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.048
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.54CPOE+1.95
- 38.7%Third-down rate47.6%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.50Points / drive2.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 11/21 | 87 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/30 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 11 | 114 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 8 | 37 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.68