2021 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

0·40

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 67°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -19

Total

47.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBills
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.091
  • 37.6%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.048
  • 6.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.54CPOE+1.95
  • 38.7%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.52
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BUF
HOUQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:2210Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:0947Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 10:0735Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:33412Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 7:01969Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 1:594-3Punt0–7
BUFQ2 15:00435Field goal0–10
HOUQ2 13:053-9Punt0–10
BUFQ2 10:43641Field goal0–13
HOUQ2 7:123-5Punt0–13
BUFQ2 5:28741Turnover on downs0–13
HOUQ2 1:5520Turnover0–13
BUFQ2 1:40733Field goal0–16
HOUQ2 0:2314End of half0–16
BUFQ3 15:001168Field goal0–19
HOUQ3 8:45721Punt0–19
BUFQ3 5:181180Touchdown0–26
HOUQ4 13:29212Turnover0–26
BUFQ4 12:59427Touchdown0–33
HOUQ4 10:44631Turnover0–33
BUFQ4 8:03753Touchdown0–40
HOUQ4 3:36737Turnover0–40
BUFQ4 1:2400End of half0–40

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills11/218704

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram6244.00
David Johnson5214.20
Jordan Akins133.00
Davis Mills122.00
Rex Burkhead1-1-1.00
Phillip Lindsay4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks57470
David Johnson34270
Pharaoh Brown1260
Jordan Akins1140
Anthony Miller1530
Chris Conley0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/3024821
Mitchell Trubisky1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary14795.60
Zack Moss14614.41
Josh Allen6416.80
Mitchell Trubisky4102.51
Emmanuel Sanders177.00
Reggie Gilliam111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs7111140
Emmanuel Sanders56740
Dawson Knox58372
Cole Beasley22160
Reggie Gilliam1180
Devin Singletary1170
Gabe Davis0100
Zack Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +192.5%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.5%2.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.68