Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.032
- 37.8%Success rate44.3%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.12CPOE+4.58
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.26Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10/17 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 6/12 | 61 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/25 | 177 | 1 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50