2018 · Week 6

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

13·20

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • -0.140EPA / play+0.032
  • 37.8%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -7.12CPOE+4.58
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.91
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
BUFQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:07716Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:35639Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 4:4359Punt0–7
HOUQ1 1:15721Punt0–7
BUFQ2 13:41613Punt0–7
HOUQ2 10:1337Field goal0–10
BUFQ2 8:334-3Punt0–10
HOUQ2 5:491032Turnover0–10
BUFQ2 0:391-3End of half0–10
HOUQ3 15:0035Turnover0–10
BUFQ3 14:23826Field goal3–10
HOUQ3 10:12523Punt3–10
BUFQ3 7:17412Punt3–10
HOUQ3 4:2833Punt3–10
BUFQ3 3:31445Field goal6–10
HOUQ3 2:1237Turnover6–10
BUFQ3 0:46532Touchdown13–10
HOUQ4 13:00416Punt13–10
BUFQ4 10:271044Punt13–10
HOUQ4 3:55948Field goal13–13
BUFQ4 1:3420Opp touchdown13–20
BUFQ4 1:23517Turnover13–20
HOUQ4 0:2300End of half13–20
HOUQ4 0:0000End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen10/178400
Nathan Peterman6/126112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16734.60
Josh Allen4205.00
Chris Ivory650.80
Nathan Peterman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin26430
Zay Jones38351
LeSean McCoy35210
Charles Clay45200
Andre Holmes12200
Chris Ivory1140
Ray-Ray McCloud1120
Logan Thomas1100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/2517712
DeAndre Hopkins0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15463.10
Alfred Blue7263.70
Deshaun Watson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins56631
Will Fuller23330
Keke Coutee35330
Lamar Miller23250
Alfred Blue23170
Jordan Akins1160
Ryan Griffin0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50