2014 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

17·23

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

44

Model margin

+4.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.031
  • 41.0%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.120
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.80CPOE-2.14
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.63
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
BUFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:02417Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:466-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:5339Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:5734Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:23516Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:501262Field goal3–0
HOUQ2 11:37539Turnover3–0
BUFQ2 9:50849Touchdown10–0
HOUQ2 5:5410Turnover10–0
BUFQ2 5:47516Punt10–0
HOUQ2 3:29880Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 0:57423End of half10–7
HOUQ3 15:0010Turnover10–7
BUFQ3 14:5237Opp touchdown10–14
BUFQ3 13:2837Punt10–14
HOUQ3 12:241144Field goal10–17
BUFQ3 6:14732Punt10–17
HOUQ3 2:27842Punt10–17
BUFQ4 14:463-2Punt10–17
HOUQ4 13:3331Punt10–17
BUFQ4 11:5032Punt10–17
HOUQ4 10:5137Field goal10–20
BUFQ4 9:21180Touchdown17–20
HOUQ4 9:08842Field goal17–23
BUFQ4 4:4934Punt17–23
HOUQ4 3:4966Punt17–23
BUFQ4 1:42530Turnover17–23
HOUQ4 1:0700End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel21/4422522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller15604.00
Fred Jackson7334.70
EJ Manuel133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams26841
Fred Jackson67520
Sammy Watkins49301
C.J. Spiller33240
Robert Woods312170
Scott Chandler25150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick25/3726812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick5142.80
Alfred Blue991.00
Damaris Johnson188.00
Arian Foster860.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson67710
DeAndre Hopkins56641
Arian Foster710550
Garrett Graham35280
Alfred Blue23160
Damaris Johnson12100
Keshawn Martin0100
C.J. Fiedorowicz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.67
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.27