Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.031
- 41.0%Success rate40.7%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.120
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.80CPOE-2.14
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.0%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.63
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 21/44 | 225 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 12 | 17 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 25/37 | 268 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 7 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.27