2024 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

20·23

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

48

Model margin

-0.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • +0.186EPA / play-0.038
  • 47.8%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.008
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.64CPOE-2.77
  • 45.6%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.84
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU
2012 · W9BUF @ HOU9–21HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
BUFQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:2131Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:041044Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 6:27670Touchdown3–7
BUFQ1 2:5534Punt3–13
HOUQ1 1:43167Touchdown3–14
BUFQ1 1:34513Punt3–14
HOUQ2 14:381165Turnover on downs3–14
BUFQ2 7:55935Punt3–14
HOUQ2 2:4238Punt3–14
BUFQ2 1:0230Punt3–14
HOUQ2 0:30519Field goal3–17
HOUQ3 15:00756Field goal3–20
BUFQ3 11:15655Touchdown10–20
HOUQ3 8:4837Punt10–20
BUFQ3 7:06565Touchdown17–20
HOUQ3 4:20529Punt17–20
BUFQ3 1:14631Punt17–20
HOUQ4 13:301055Turnover17–20
BUFQ4 8:06522Punt17–20
HOUQ4 5:50412Turnover17–20
BUFQ4 4:2130Field goal20–20
HOUQ4 3:18931Punt20–20
BUFQ4 0:3230Punt20–20
HOUQ4 0:0715Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen9/3013110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook20824.11
Josh Allen45413.50
Ty Johnson3155.00
Curtis Samuel1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman15491
Dalton Kincaid26340
Mack Hollins26270
James Cook23170
Ray Davis1240
Curtis Samuel1400
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0300

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud28/3833111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers9424.71
Dare Ogunbowale15302.00
C.J. Stroud3279.00
Tank Dell1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs68820
Nico Collins22781
Dare Ogunbowale67570
Tank Dell44380
Dalton Schultz46340
Xavier Hutchinson23310
Cade Stover2260
Cam Akers2350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.80