Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
48
Model margin
-0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.038
- 47.8%Success rate39.1%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.008
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.64CPOE-2.77
- 45.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 2.90Points / drive1.84
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9/30 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 28/38 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 2 | 78 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.80