Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play+0.011
- 41.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.11Points / drive1.90
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:23 | 9 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:37 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 13:02 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:23 | 10 | 40 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q2 4:37 | 13 | 45 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:14 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 14:45 | 6 | 11 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q3 11:17 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 7:57 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 4:31 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NO | Q3 0:21 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| CAR | Q4 11:56 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:17 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 20–17 |
| CAR | Q4 2:59 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| NO | Q4 1:04 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| CAR | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 18/24 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 26 | 64 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/31 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.74