Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/38 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.