Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:51 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:04 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 4:53 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q1 2:05 | 11 | 37 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 11:04 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q2 9:04 | 1 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NE | Q2 8:52 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LV | Q2 4:49 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NE | Q2 1:53 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:53 | 4 | 18 | End of half | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 12:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 10:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 9:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 8:16 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 6:37 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 5:52 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 14–23 |
| LV | Q3 5:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–23 |
| NE | Q3 3:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–23 |
| LV | Q3 2:34 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 14–23 |
| NE | Q3 0:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–23 |
| LV | Q4 14:08 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 14–23 |
| NE | Q4 12:03 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| LV | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 14–30 |
| NE | Q4 7:26 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 14–30 |
| LV | Q4 4:01 | 6 | 15 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| NE | Q4 3:04 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/38 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.