Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.020
- 39.5%Success rate40.6%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.28Points / drive1.65
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/45 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/23 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94