Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.020
- 39.5%Success rate40.6%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.28Points / drive1.65
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:33 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:42 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:08 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:51 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:38 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 0:09 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q2 11:21 | 7 | 6 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 7:26 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q2 5:42 | 7 | 49 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 2:35 | 6 | 33 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:05 | 6 | 12 | End of half | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q3 11:48 | 5 | 44 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q3 8:46 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q3 4:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q3 2:46 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q3 2:10 | 10 | 20 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q4 13:14 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q4 9:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q4 7:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q4 7:24 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q4 3:54 | 9 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q4 1:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/45 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/23 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94