Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+7.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.057
- 40.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.067
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- 34.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.17Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:23 | 10 | 92 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q1 2:42 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:06 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 10:50 | 5 | 40 | Missed field goal | 7–16 |
| PIT | Q2 8:59 | 1 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| TEN | Q2 8:49 | 4 | 56 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 5:53 | 9 | 80 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| TEN | Q3 11:37 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q3 7:02 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| TEN | Q3 2:03 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–34 |
| PIT | Q3 0:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–34 |
| TEN | Q4 13:32 | 9 | 38 | Turnover | 7–34 |
| PIT | Q4 9:50 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–34 |
| TEN | Q4 5:32 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 7–34 |
| PIT | Q4 3:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–34 |
| TEN | Q4 1:49 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/26 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
| Billy Volek | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/11 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 22 | 161 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.66