Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
+3.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.138
- 38.8%Success rate37.0%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.129
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- 38.8%Third-down rate28.3%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.08
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/37 | 196 | 1 | 5 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2/6 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 14/21 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 139 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81