Closing spread
PHI -11.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.104
- 34.0%Success rate39.5%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- 25.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 0.94Points / drive1.28
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 14:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 12:22 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 10:45 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 9:53 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 7:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 4:58 | 8 | 65 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 1:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 14:44 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| SF | Q2 11:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| PHI | Q2 11:26 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| SF | Q2 11:22 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| PHI | Q2 8:50 | 8 | 17 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| SF | Q2 4:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–28 |
| PHI | Q2 2:43 | 6 | 41 | End of half | 0–28 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–28 |
| PHI | Q3 11:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–28 |
| SF | Q3 9:05 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 3–28 |
| PHI | Q3 4:08 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| SF | Q3 0:58 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–35 |
| PHI | Q4 14:09 | 15 | 105 | Touchdown | 3–42 |
| SF | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–42 |
| PHI | Q4 2:39 | 4 | 36 | End of half | 3–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 13/26 | 107 | 0 | 3 |
| Alex Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/29 | 342 | 5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 9/9 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Reno Mahe | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
0.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.62
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.35