Closing spread
PHI -11.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.104
- 34.0%Success rate39.5%
- -0.265EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- 25.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 34.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 0.94Points / drive1.28
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 13/26 | 107 | 0 | 3 |
| Alex Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/29 | 342 | 5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 9/9 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Reno Mahe | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
0.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.62
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.35