2005 · Week 3
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.059
- 39.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.158
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.36Points / drive1.29
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/26 | 139 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 37 | 158 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/24 | 195 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26