2005 · Week 3
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.059
- 39.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.158
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.36Points / drive1.29
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:20 | 13 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:08 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| TB | Q1 2:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–6 |
| GB | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TB | Q2 13:41 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| GB | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| TB | Q2 9:18 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| GB | Q2 6:48 | 6 | 32 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| TB | Q2 4:27 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 17–13 |
| GB | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 17–13 |
| GB | Q3 11:59 | 11 | 50 | Missed field goal | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 6:48 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 17–13 |
| GB | Q3 4:13 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 17–13 |
| TB | Q3 1:09 | 9 | 23 | Punt | 17–13 |
| GB | Q4 12:15 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| TB | Q4 11:36 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| GB | Q4 9:19 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| TB | Q4 7:18 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 17–16 |
| GB | Q4 5:52 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 17–16 |
| TB | Q4 5:03 | 8 | 50 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/26 | 139 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 37 | 158 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/24 | 195 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26