2005 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
35
Model margin
+5.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.066
- 38.8%Success rate39.7%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.068
- 5.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.8%Third-down rate38.9%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/27 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/39 | 302 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.47
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.00